POPULATION GROWTH
Toronto’s population has surged over the past two years — growing far faster, larger and earlier than predicted.
Yes, the changes are mostly due to immigration, which is always what we’ve relied on and benefited from for generations. But there’s been a lot of heat around this topic, which is why we decided to dig into the data to get to the heart of the story.
Between 2011-2021, the city of Toronto grew by about 21,000 people per year.1
In 2022 alone, the city grew by 68,000 people. The next year it was 125,000. That's almost five times faster than the average in the decade before.2
The total Toronto metropolitan area grew by 222,000 people in 2023. That one-year growth alone is bigger than the growth of half the 41 metropolitan areas in the country.
In fact, the city of Toronto's population has already surpassed the 2031 projection from the provincial 2006 Places to Grow Plan by 31,000 people.3
Out of Toronto’s 158 neighbourhoods, the top 10 are growing more than 10x faster than the city overall (as of the last census).4
Between 2016-2021 these 10 neighbourhoods grew by an average of 31% or more than 5,000 people each, while the city grew by 2.3% overall.5 The remaining 148 neighbourhoods grew by an average of only 77 people each.6 In fact over half of these neighbourhoods shrank overall during this period.7
Demographics are different too, particularly when it comes to age.
There are 100,000 fewer children between the ages of 0-14 than compared to the official growth plan from nearly 20 years ago, due to many families with children moving out of the city and a falling birthrate. On the other hand, there are over 132,000 more 25-34 year olds than estimated, as well as over 84,000 more adults aged 65+.8
Endnotes:
1 Source: Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0152-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census division, 2021 boundaries, https://doi.org/10.25318/1710015201-eng. Note: Population estimates are for July 1st of each year. Total growth was 212,974 during this period.
2 +67,562 in 2022 and +125,756 in 2023.
3 Ontario Ministry of Public Infrastructure Reneal.(2006). Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. https://simcoecountygreenbelt.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Place-To-Grow-Plan-2006.pdf Note: Places to Grow had projected that Toronto’s population would reach 3,080,000 by 2031 but it was already 3,110,984 in 2023.
4 Data provided by the City of Toronto. Note: 'Fastest growing neighborhoods' refer to the neighbourhoods that have added the most residents in absolute terms. The average growth percentages provided are simple averages.
5 Growth in these 10 neighbourhoods was 51,460.
6 Total growth was 11,325 across these 148 neighborhoods.
7 78 neigbourhoods lost residents.
8 Estimates are from: City of Toronto (2002). Flashforward: Projecting Population and Employment to 2031 in a Mature Urban Area. https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/951c-Flashforward-Where-Are-We-Going-to-Work.pdf Current population number are from Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0152-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census division, 2021 boundaries, https://doi.org/10.25318/1710015201-eng